COVID-19 and concert attendance

March 7, 2020, 9:54 AM · How is the concern over COVID-19 affecting concert attendance and the financial health of music performers (if at all)?

Are you making any changes to your concert attendance or performance as a result of such concerns?

I guess that there might be accidental benefits - more space at concerts, fewer people coughing (well one can dream), and a greater focus of the die-hards as opposed to the more casual attendees.

And although there be some financial protection due to early sales and limited refund policies by venues, I would guess that that would be limited and temporary, and that some of the harm might be felt in the future, when consumers remember that they couldn't get refunds previously and are less likely to commit to attendance in advance.

But that's just my guessing. Does anyone here have more information on this? Or is positivity holding, at least so far?

Replies (73)

Edited: March 7, 2020, 10:38 AM · I think that in the West it's too soon to say.
At the moment the media moguls are only interested in selling newspapers. How the reality will pan out is anyone's guess.
March 7, 2020, 12:16 PM · I am very concerned about the potential implications for my orchestra, but it's impossible to know right now how the next few months will play out (pun intended).
March 7, 2020, 12:42 PM · Much to be decided soon. The Brits are remarkably calm about all this, but I am off to hear the Faure Requiem in Oxford— a pretty hot ticket, so turnout might say something.

Also airlines are being crushed. I just bought a transatlantic ticket and economy is more or less full, but premium and business were wide open. That almost never happens.

March 7, 2020, 12:46 PM · San Francisco Symphony is shutting down for a month. That's a lot of money involved.
March 7, 2020, 12:59 PM · Here's one list of major classical cancellations to date:

While the issues is greater in the East at present, the lines aren't as clear anymore. Italy is already significantly affected, as are some Western performers previously scheduled to play in the East.

March 7, 2020, 1:14 PM · They canceled all performances in Slovenia until further notice today.
We were supposed to have Andrea Bocelli today in Ljubljana... canceled.
We lost a gig on Friday and it looks we are loosing one next saturday.

I am not at all happy about this. My wallet isn’t eather....

Edited: March 7, 2020, 1:23 PM · Yikes. Well the Sheldonian was more or less sold out, and is getting pretty full with 10 minutes to go.
March 7, 2020, 1:28 PM · The Brits are not calm - they are complacent and stupid.
Parliament is telling us not to worry and all we have to do is wash our hands, yet parliament wants to go into recess for 5 months!
March 7, 2020, 4:16 PM · Some Brits are panic buying loo roll, some are not worried at all. Our government, well, they haven’t done much, just telling us to wash hands.
The guildhall school of music did close for a period.

Orchestras wise, currently unsure. Both of the ones I am in are following legislation. We are going to continue rehearsing and performing until the government says otherwise. I don’t know whether our ticket sales will be affected, it’s almost too early to say. With only two cases in Wales so far, I’m not overly worried about spread. Perhaps I’m feeling too complacent, I don’t know.

March 7, 2020, 4:25 PM · Talked with a senior civil servant this evening— her reminder is that if you’re not already sick with something else or stuck with a weak immune system, the risks are not high at all. Infection, perhaps. Death, no.
March 7, 2020, 5:42 PM · Never mind the audiences. If the virus becomes more widespread, then the brass and woodwind blasting out aerosols all over the orchestra won't be very welcome! Most amateur orchestras will stop rehearsing completely.
Edited: March 7, 2020, 5:51 PM · The OP's question had to do with concert attendance and the financial health of performers.

I'm not particularly worried about getting the virus, except that being quarantined would be a major inconvenience. I am quite worried about the financial implications for my orchestra if concerts are canceled. I am further worried about the financial implications to myself beyond my primary employer if other local events are canceled. Human lives are more important than concerts, and more important than my family's bottom line, but the possibility exists for a major economic disruption both for my orchestra and for my family.

Edited: March 7, 2020, 6:11 PM · My community orchestra just played our spring concert this past week. There was no visible change in attendance.
March 7, 2020, 6:15 PM · I think it's more than a possibility that there'll be major economic disruption. Actually, there already is but perhaps not yet with audiences.
Edited: March 8, 2020, 4:26 AM · Perhaps even just self-inflicted economic disruption.
There seems to be no problem with the Chinese Yuan yet.
If the figures were 100,000 infections in China, that would be a small percentage of the city of Wuhan, let alone of all of China.
However, the Boxing Day tsunami did warn us about the nature of geometric growth.

But in addition, we were already disbanding orchestras, using synthesisers instead of string sections in theaters, closing theaters (if they were that terrible, Andrew Lloyd Webber wouldn't own so many); and COVID will be supplied as the excuse for more capitalists making more cuts and cutting more corners and ripping more people off.

It doesn't seem to be any worse than flu, but apocalyptic ideas have been in the air: we had The Last Man on Earth a while back on TV.

It doesn't seem to be any worse than flu, so why not call it flu? After all, we don't normally bother distinguishing between H1N1, H1N3, H3N5, etc.
The reason we don't call it flu is because the Rupert Murdochs would make less money that way. This way they will make more money and spend less on orchestras and we will get more TV documentaries about superyachts and superhomes.

Edited: March 8, 2020, 3:50 AM · Which way should you turn when you're in completely uncharted territory? We think we ought to do something but we don't know what, and doing nothing (differently) will at least minimise collateral effects due to the law of unintended consequences. I think I'll just try to keep calm and carry on fiddling while Rome is in shutdown.
March 8, 2020, 4:36 AM · Its 20 times more deadly than the flu, the idea that it is no worse than the flu is right wing propaganda.
Edited: March 8, 2020, 5:25 AM · Has every piece of incorrect information got to be a conspiracy? Covid-19 does seem to be deadlier than flu but by how much is uncertain
Edited: March 8, 2020, 5:51 AM · Part of my point was that there is no such thing as "flu" - there are different strains of the influenza virus.

2009 passed me by.
This is probably because the Rupert Murdochs didn't realise how much money they could make from it in 2009, or maybe I was just going through a lull in following the "news".: -

"...11–21% of the then global population...contracted the illness — more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic. However, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%."

and "Spanish flu": "infected...27% of the then world population.... The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to...100 million"

Maybe the CIA are involved now because they want to take China down a peg or two?[/sarcasm]

Last year's flu may not have been a biggie. If Covid is 20 times worse than that, that doesn't mean anything on its own.

So we may as well treat it as though it were flu (it's probably not some Martian thing that will kill 99% of us) - it's not Marburg, it's not Ebola. The alternative is just to panic, make your will out to Rupert Murdoch, and commit suicide.

Edited: March 8, 2020, 5:54 AM · While we all need to keep calm and carry on, with appropriate precautions, it's very irresponsible to say Covid-19 is just like the 'flu. The best estimate for the case fatality rate is 1-2% and considerably higher in the over 50s or if you have a pre-existing medical condition like hypertension, asthma or diabetes (relatively common conditions in the over 60s).

So people should be concerned and take precautions like frequent handwashing, no coughing and sneezing without catching any droplets. When it becomes more widespread, avoiding crowds in enclosed spaces and self-isolation if you develop any suspicious symptoms would be necessary, at least until you get tested. Otherwise continue normal life.

But don't delude yourself it's going to be like a flu outbreak. Excluding the direct effects on peoples' lives, it's going to have significant effects (both good and bad) on politics, economics, society and attitudes in ways we probably can't predict at present. This is true of any major epidemics/pandemics. The 1918 flu is a good example (BTW, the 1918 pandemic wasn't like "normal" flu; it had a 2% case fatality rate).

March 8, 2020, 8:29 AM · " The best estimate for the case fatality rate is 1-2% and considerably higher in the over 50s or if you have a pre-existing medical condition like hypertension, asthma or diabetes (relatively common conditions in the over 60s)"

The classical audience skews older, and older people might also be more likely to be in contact with very old people, for whom the statistics are much worse.

"Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older"

"The ARDS [acute respiratory distress syndrome] patients had an average age of 61, compared to an average age of 49 for those who did not develop ARDS. Elderly patients “were more likely to develop ARDS,” the researchers wrote, suggesting how age can make Covid-19 more severe and even fatal: age increases the risk that the respiratory system will basically shut down under viral assault."

So the issue is potentially severe, and for the classical music field particularly as a whole, whether or not our own risk of death is high.

And similarly to it having the greatest impact on those with weakest health and support systems, it might have a great impact on music venues or performers who are borderline financially.

And given that future ticket sales may be impacted longer-term and therefore not be immediate solutions to the problem, it might take additional calls for donation - in general greater support from those who are financially stronger - to weather the storm and its effects.

Edited: March 8, 2020, 10:30 AM · One can reasonably assume there are a lot more cases than those that are medically confirmed, especially in places without massive testing. Some put it at 10 times more. If true, the fatality rate is significantly lower, perhaps at 0.2%!
March 8, 2020, 10:51 AM · On the flip side, there are those with incentives to keep reported infections low. A colleague of mine with connections in China says it would be best to multiply official figures from there by 20-- all of them. Journalists are being forbidden to share stories on what they know.
March 8, 2020, 11:20 AM · "Some put it at 10 times more. If true, the fatality rate is significantly lower, perhaps at 0.2%"

That might possibly be the case but it can only be confirmed by widespread serological testing. But, a serological test for the virus is currently unavailable. In the meantime epidemiologists have been modelling the outbreak and their mathematical models do point to a number of undetected infections due to no or slight symptoms. These are built in to the models and bring the fatality rate down to 1-2%. Time and serological testing will eventually give us the true figure.

March 8, 2020, 11:21 AM · I'm especially concerned that orchestra audiences are at great risk because the average age of the attendee is probably at least 60. So in the short term, cancellation of orchestra concerts is probably at the top of the list in terms of protecting the most vulnerable among us. I fear there is another possible outcome that will impact professional orchestras in the longer term: Many of their subscription members and most loyal donors are folks in at-risk age groups. This is why orchestras that are able to think more long-term (and I know some just aren't) should focus on the estates of their donors in addition to in-time donations. I get a brochure every year from my alma mater about "estate planning" with them in mind.
March 8, 2020, 11:43 AM · While that's logically sound, the last thing I'd want to ask a long-term supporter for, especially in a context of a risk that they might be more exposed to as a consequence of supporting, for them to give "us" their money when they're gone - because it appears to value their death more than their life. To the contrary, I'd thank them for their continued support, and be very grateful if they thought to continued that on their own accord afterwards.

Paul, I don't mean to imply that you're insensitive, you're not - just that this is a hugely sensitive issue that must be handled very carefully.

March 8, 2020, 12:10 PM · A possible link between air pollution and lung damage might be good news from the standpoint of having potentially less harm (though not less risk of infection) in areas/people with less lung damage.

Edited: March 8, 2020, 12:30 PM · I saw a nice statement the other day to the effect that the internet's (self-declared) Constitutional experts have now transitioned to become today's (self-declared) disease transmission experts. This thread appears to be an example. I'll stick with what the real experts are saying, thanks.

Last night's CSO concert was near 100% capacity. I saw a single face mask in the audience.

I have opinions, and no one who's smart would be interested in what I think, because it's not my topic of expertise. :-)

March 8, 2020, 5:52 PM · "I'll stick with what the real experts are saying, thanks."

There's nothing wrong with that. Feel free to share the opinions of "real experts" here or not.

Edited: March 8, 2020, 8:15 PM · I agree with Michael that having a bunch of violinists arguing about fatality rates is kind of pointless. On the other hand, if all the expert advice has to be filtered through a man who thought needle-exchange was a bad idea in the midst of an AIDS epidemic (others having been barred from talking to the media), then you wonder whether any source of information is better than any other.

@JRay, lots of charities ask their donors to "remember us in your estate planning." Lots of them. Just type the name of your favorite charity into Google along with the words "estate planning" or "planned giving." NPR. Unicef. The Red Cross. Habitat for Humanity.

Edit -- oh you mean starting a big planned-giving campaign right now would be in poor taste. Yes, it certainly would.

March 8, 2020, 11:20 PM · One more factoid: Harvard is suspending nonessential gatherings on their campus through April. That effectively cancels concerts held at Sanders Theater.
March 8, 2020, 11:22 PM · It may not be a matter of concert goers staying home by choice; their city/county/state may start restricting gatherings over a certain size. In that case, orchestras, theatres, etc. will have to rethink how they reach their audience.
Maybe instead of selling seats in an auditorium they'll sell subscriptions to live streaming. It's not at all the same, but better than nothing.
Already sporting events in the US as well as Europe and Asia are being cancelled or played to empty stadiums because of this virus. Concerts and theatre are sure to also be affected.
March 9, 2020, 10:09 AM · Sent from the afterlife from my iPhone.
Edited: March 10, 2020, 1:55 AM · Swine Flu lasted maybe 18 months.
I hope we can keep up this intensity for 18 months!
March 10, 2020, 11:07 AM · It would be a great way to drop global greenhouse gas emissions. Every sneeze has a silver lining!
March 10, 2020, 4:07 PM · "Sent from the afterlife from my iPhone."

Would you consider revising your will to make a contribution supporting this service? You would have our undying gratitude.

March 11, 2020, 1:55 AM · As someone living in a country which is under lockdown, I can say a few things.

1. In the region of Lombardy the authorities are planning to close everything that is not a pharmacy or a grocery store. My business is already closed. Theaters and concert halls? Closed.

2. Here are some numbers for the province of Cremona. 67 deaths and 957 infected or ill. (the population of the province is 330,000).

3. The average age of the deceased is 81; majority are male and with 3 or more pre-existing medical conditions.

That said (there's no opinion here, only facts and numbers) the infection curve hasn't peaked yet so the authorities have invited everyone to stay at home. This recommendation is being implemented in other countries as well in Europe. #istayhome

Edited: March 11, 2020, 4:25 AM ·
Bianca (@labisbeticah) tweeted at 5:57 AM on Mon, Mar 09, 2020:

"Please, please guys. Here in northern #Italy we made one big mistake. Everybody kept saying "It's just flu" and now our intensive care units are collapsing. Everybody kept going outside like nothing happened and now our grandparents and parents are dying.
#coronavirus is not #flu"

March 11, 2020, 4:36 AM · but Trump said it was just like flu, it's not like he would lie about something like that, is it?????
Edited: March 11, 2020, 7:05 AM · My parents are in their late 80s. Just about everyone in that age group has at least three "pre-existing conditions." The 80+ crowd has no choice but to isolate themselves to the extent possible. Even medical visits for other ailments have to be postponed or cancelled.

@George Huhn, we see the same thing with people who refuse to vaccinate. They feel they're just exercising their own personal freedom, but they don't appreciate (i.e., don't care) how much they're putting other, more vulnerable, people at serious risk.

March 11, 2020, 7:15 AM · Lyndon, fake news. :-)
March 11, 2020, 9:33 AM · Gordon wrote: It doesn't seem to be any worse than flu, so why not call it flu?

"So, it's shaped kind of like a violin, why does it have to be called a viola?"

Because language matters, and precise language conveys meaning. Coronavirus is an entirely different category of virus. COVID-19 is effectively a bad cold -- except if it goes to your lungs, in which case you get a potentially deadly pneumonia.

If we were to substitute more imprecise language, it'd probably be best to refer to it as a pandemic of pneumonia.

Here in the DC/MD/VA area, the chamber music society has cancelled all concerts that occur at retirement homes / senior centers / other venues nearly exclusive to the elderly. Most such venues have also cancelled concerts. Some are self-isolating. The conductor of one of the community orchestras was exposed, temporarily shutting down operations for that group. Given the age of the classical music audience, I expect that we'll see more and more such things over the weeks to come.

Edited: March 11, 2020, 10:15 AM · Living in a place where I'm sure it's pretty rampant (LA), the current concern is overwhelming the health system (one of my student's parents is on the front lines for this). You may be young and not worried about it, but there will be people who contract the virus who need hospitalization and special care. If 300 people have it and 50 need care and nine people die, that is one set of numbers. But if 30,000 people have it all at once, 5,000 suddenly need special care, 900 die - you see the problem. So a very big concern now is just slowing it down so it doesn't overwhelm the medical system. In the U.S. we missed the containment window - just didn't test people, so now it's spreading in communities.

Also, yes, "I'm not worried about getting it" - many people don't see it as a personal threat. But anyone can have it for five days without symptoms. It is very possible to GIVE it to someone who could be more vulnerable than you. A scenario where this could happen: when you crowd together a large group of elderly people mixed with younger people.

As of writing this, I've received a number of notices from symphonies in the Los Angeles area; so far they are not canceling concerts, but they are encouraging sick people to stay home, providing hand sanitizer, doing an extra cleaning of the venue and scanning tickets instead of handling them.

Edited: March 11, 2020, 12:21 PM · David, given that your politics are bordering on fascist, I wouldn't take your concepts of fake news as anything other than misinformed propaganda!!
Edited: March 11, 2020, 12:23 PM · Influenza kills by making people more susceptible to pneumonia.
Some people refer to influenza as flu.
Some people refer to colds as flu; they do nothing about it and mix with people; they are the irresponsible ones.
Treating Covid the same as the common cold is not what I suggested.
If influenza and covid have the same effects and can be quarantined in the same way, then the lay person can treat them the same: the genome analyser can't, but we aren't genome analysers.

It's raining, how do I stay warm and dry?
Stay indoors.
It's snowing, how do I stay warm and dry?
Stay indoors, treat it like rain.
But it's not rain: your language is very imprecise and irresponsible!

Edited: March 11, 2020, 12:43 PM · It looks like the state of Washington is set to announce an emergency ban on all gatherings of more than 250 people in three counties. In California, Santa Clara County has now announced that gatherings of over 1,000 people are prohibited until the end of the month.

I assume this means mandatory concert cancellations, or at least restricted attendance.

March 11, 2020, 1:17 PM · Lyndon wrote:
" David, given that your politics are bordering on fascist..."

Oh really? You presume to know anything whatsoever about my politics?

Fact: I have never voted in any city, county, state, or national election, nor have I ever participated in the campaigning of any political candidate or party. Not that I fault those who do. It just doesn't happen to be my gig.

Edited: March 11, 2020, 1:27 PM · The problem with treating COVID-19 and flu the same way is that we know we're having a "flu season" every year so basically we just get our shots and go our merry way. If we get sick, then we stay home. But the incubation period for the flu is only two days. So if you're feeling sick, the number of people with whom you've come into contact and the geographical distribution thereof are both generally much smaller. So the statement, "If influenza and covid have the same effects and can be quarantined in the same way, then the lay person can treat them the same" is predicated on a falsehood.

If we play our cards right, and document what is happening, not only will we hopefully save a lot of lives, but we also might collectively LEARN something that will help us in the future. Hopefully there's no Dickey Amendment for COVID-19.

March 11, 2020, 1:26 PM · Now my old youth orchestra's gala (Saturday) is going online as a virtual celebration. Probably a streamed concert and electronic auction. Plus ordered-in wine and dinner?
March 11, 2020, 1:29 PM · Saves you having to have your slacks pressed.
March 11, 2020, 3:27 PM · My school’s orchestra is also considering holding off a performance of Tchaikovsky serenade for strings and Mozart Requiem. This is very disappointing since they are fun. Many schools around my district are also closing due to this inconvenience. We might be next!
March 11, 2020, 3:32 PM · Results otherwise mixed around Boston. The Symphony is apparently still performing, even if smaller groups are cancelling or postponing their events.

Over here in Oxford, I just came from a pretty full St John's Passion at one of the colleges.

March 11, 2020, 5:09 PM · It's official: Governor Inslee has announced that gatherings of more than 250 people are banned in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties (the entire Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area) through the end of the month.

I think it's safe to assume that no one is putting on any public concerts there.

Edited: March 11, 2020, 5:34 PM · Benaroya Hall (Seattle) has canceled all events through March 31st. The music school where I take lessons has closed through the 26th. Seattle public schools are all closed for at least the next 14 days. I work at a university where every class possible is being held via videoconference, and most staff are telecommuting. What excitement for everyone.
Edited: March 11, 2020, 7:18 PM · Back in 2009, when the U.S. was experiencing an economic recession, companies placed a freeze on traveling as part of their cost cutting measure. Thus, both hotel and airline industries were seeing red numbers in their revenue.

As an alternative, people started using video conferencing. Video Conferencing was not prevalent then, but nowadays, video conferencing and telecommuting have become a normal part of business (for the most part anyway). I will not be surprised if something similar happens in the live concert industry.

Even before covid-19, I've already seen some theaters in the U.S. live-streaming operas and other similar live performances from New York for $50/person or less. I guess this type of trend is inevitable with or without covid-19. Of course, this still does require someone to be with other people/strangers... lol.

We have 3 concerts that we are still waiting to see if they will cancel or not. So far, in my area, they've only canceled concerts up to March 20th.

Will I go if the concerts push through? Well, that's up in the air right now. I'll take a wait and see approach.

Am I afraid? No, but I am concerned for the safety of my family.

Edited: March 11, 2020, 8:07 PM · CSU Sacramento just canceled all public events for the rest of the school year. Their orchestra will play all scheduled concerts, but without a live audience; concerts will instead be presented by video stream.
March 11, 2020, 9:08 PM · @Andrew Hsieh
My school is planning to do something similar too. Sacramento is pretty close to my district so that makes me really worried.
Edited: March 11, 2020, 9:23 PM · UC Davis, the other large university in the area, has canceled or postponed public events through the end of the month -- except for athletics and performing arts events which will apparently continue as scheduled, at least for now.

My orchestra (in Sacramento) has a concert this weekend, which as of now is still going forward. Our venue seats about 700, so would not be affected by a ban similar to the ones imposed in other California cities and counties.

March 12, 2020, 1:50 AM · Some first hand info from doctor friends in neighboring Italy:

Covid-19 is not exactly flue. It has flu-like symptoms, however it actually starts in aveoles and fills them up with fluid. Regular flu first destroys the body’s ability to fight off bacteria that lives in the upper regions of breathing apparatus, the bacteria then enters the lung and causes pneumonia.
Covid-19 actually bypasses that mechanism and acts directly in the aveoles, causing instant non bacterial pneumonia.

There is absolutely no cure for this, that’s why it’s so scary. If the body can not fight this off on it’s own then you simply suffocate. The lack of respirators means doctors have to draw straws who lives and who dies. In italy some almost 200 people die every day.

Politicians are too slow to react and people don’t understand that taking precautions is in public, not their own interest. I personally do not fear covid-19, but I would not like to spread it to someone vulnerable and endanger their lives.

March 12, 2020, 2:16 AM · And this is why it's important to take whatever steps are necessary to "flatten the curve." At this point it appears inevitable that 40 to 80 percent of the world's population will be infected at some point. If everyone is infected at once, we get the crisis that is taking place in Italy. If infections are spread out over a longer period of time, then there is enough hospital capacity to save more people.

I think one more thing is worth pointing out: the death toll is higher than what we're counting, because not all of the people dying as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic are actually infected with the coronavirus. There are undoubtedly some deaths from other causes that are the result of healthcare systems being overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients and unable to provide lifesaving treatment for people with other diseases.

March 12, 2020, 3:34 AM · In an area where the virus breaks out, close everything, quarantine everyone, assure only vital services, for 2 weeks. That's the only way to flatten the curve. It worked in Wuhan, it worked in the first area of outbreak in Italy (no more infections being reported).

Now that the cat is out of the bag, local authorities world-wide have to follow this example if they detect an outbreak in any city. A couple weeks of everything standing still is well worth saving lives and, who knows, we might even learn something from the experience.

Edited: March 12, 2020, 7:06 AM · Slovenia is the second EU country which will (in a couple of minutes) officially call all out epidemic (first being Italy).

We have more than 150% growth of confirmed cases every day. We currently only have 82 confirmed cases, which is roughly 1/5 of what Italy has (per capita).

March 12, 2020, 1:00 PM · Here is an informative article from the NY Times:
March 12, 2020, 1:19 PM · For those who like numbers and statistics, I found this site helpful about the growth of the virus. It's updated every few minutes. Be careful though, it can be addicting! :)
March 12, 2020, 2:23 PM · Now the Boston Symphony is closing for the rest of the month.
March 12, 2020, 3:48 PM · The province of Quebec in Canada has banned all indoor events of more than 250 people.

This will affect the OSM among other groups, leading to concert cancellations. For now, their cancellations only extend to early April.

March 12, 2020, 3:50 PM · Carnegie Hall has cancelled all events for at least the rest of the month.

March 12, 2020, 10:02 PM · Today my orchestra announced the cancellation of this weekend's concert.

As of now, the following US states have mandatory bans on large gatherings: California, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, and Washington. In addition, the cities of Austin, Philadelphia, and St. Louis have imposed their own bans.

March 12, 2020, 10:06 PM · Here's one for the statisticians amongst us (is there any?). If 20 of the croud attending a concert has COVID, and the total numbers of attendees is 1000, and the chances of catching the bug from someone 2 rows away from you in any direction is reduced by 80% what is the chance of catching the bug?

The answer I think is .02 x 8 (# of people next to you) x the chances of catching the bug from someone next to you (lets say 30%) + the chance of catching it from someone further away from you.

March 12, 2020, 10:57 PM · Depends whether infectiousness drops continuously or in a single step, I think.

Also, you have to account for the possibility that two sick people might be near each other.

March 13, 2020, 4:50 AM · Here in Belgium all cultural events have been canceled, for the moment until April 3th...
March 13, 2020, 7:14 AM · In Indianapolis all events drawing more than 250 people have been canceled until April, that includes several performances of the Indianapolis Symphony Orchestra and the Laurate series from the International Violin Competition of Indianapolis. All local school districts have also been closed, and I'm working from home starting Monday
March 13, 2020, 7:56 AM · Here in Chicago CSO just canceled all concerts for the next month on the governor's orders. My youngest kid's youth orchestra (CYSO) has canceled everything -- they are all crammed together into one not-quite-big-enough room for rehearsals, so it is really necessary. So far, my son's precollege program, which is only about 25 kids, is still going, but Mrs. Vamos has canceled workshops (studio class) and is giving Skype lessons.

My son was supposed to give his first invited recital as part of a concert series on 4/5. It hasn't been officially canceled yet, but given the governor's order, it likely will be, as the hall holds more than 250 and the audience age tends to be high. Very disappointing, but we get it.

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