another thread set me thinking: would it be possible to say something useful about the effect of early (say, at age 7 or below) versus late start on the probability of becoming a professional violinist, using input from the members of Violinist.com?Scott's post in
We would need to ask two questions:
1) Are you a professional?
2) At which age did you start studying the violin?
The probability that one is an amateur, given that one started early, could then be estimated from the number of amateurs who started early, divided by the total number of early starters. And so for all four possible categories: (E)arly (A)mateur, E (P)rofessional, (L)ate A, L P.
As a science project, this would have a big flaw: the best we can hope for are estimates of our probabilities, given that one is a Violinist.com member! I suspect that that introduces some bias.
Nevertheless, we might learn something, and it might be fun.
Bart (E A)
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