COVID-19 in Italy - An update from Cremona

March 31, 2020, 10:43 AM · Hello everyone. Having the dubious distinction of living in Cremona, Italy, so close to where the first western world outbreak occurred, the question I get asked most often from my friends in other countries is, "When will we be done with this emergency?" I can finally begin to give an answer to that.

Cremona shutdown

Today, the I.S.S. (Italian Health Institute) reported that the peak of infections has been reached in Italy. That doesn't mean the emergency is over, it just means that, also thanks to the containment measures, the virus has stopped accelerating in terms of contagion. New infections will still occur, but at a slowing rate, and meanwhile 90 percent of the people infected are also recovering. For the first time since the outbreak, the emergency room at the main Cremona hospital was empty.

This has prompted the Italian Health Secretary to say that we can start considering a return to a form of normalcy in about two weeks, while more conservative estimations are placed at the beginning of May.

What we can glean from this, is that if the predictions are confirmed, and the containment measures are still respected by everyone, it will have taken 9-10 weeks between when the COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Italy to when we can start to return to a relatively normal life.

That hopefully should help to give some indication to the timespan in your country too, considering the variables. So let's hope, and follow the rules!

P.S. "The [US] Centers for Disease Control is reconsidering its guidance that healthy people should not wear masks as new data shows high rates of transmission by people who are carrying the virus but show no symptoms." (New York Times: More Americans Should Probably Wear Masks for Protection.)

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Replies

March 31, 2020 at 05:58 PM · Also the New York times has been telling us to make our own masks (something which I've been doing madly), and they give a pattern: It’s Time to Make Your Own Face Mask

March 31, 2020 at 11:08 PM · Thank you, Dimitri. I read the link "Coronavirus Partially Locks Down ..." and it seems there was a lot of commingling within the city. Is that true? Here in California, there is "social isolation": stay 6' or more from people outside your household. Furthermore, there aren't many businesses one can visit.

Stay safe.

April 1, 2020 at 05:42 AM · Hello Francesca, yes that was true, but only when the post was published (Feb.28). Things took a nosedive from there, hence my own subsequent post "From Cremona Italy - What you need to know about C-19". Wishing you well!

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